Climate Change and the Future of Coffee

The global coffee industry is increasingly influenced by geopolitical shifts driven by climate-related land loss. Producing nations in the Global South are increasingly integrating coffee resilience into national security agendas, as export revenues are vital for political stability. On an international scale, the 'North-South' divide is emphasized by policies like the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which uses trade law to enforce environmental standards on producing nations. Additionally, climate-driven agricultural failure in regions like the 'Northern Triangle' of Central America has elevated coffee production to a matter of foreign policy for consuming nations, who view coffee-sector investment as a tool for mitigating mass migration and regional instability. This has led to increased funding for international R&D organizations, such as World Coffee Research, which act as semi-political bodies coordinating global genetic security for the crop.

Ethical and religious frameworks have become significant drivers in the economic response to coffee's climate crisis. Many international faith-based organizations have adopted the 'Creation Care' movement, framing the preservation of coffee-producing ecosystems as a spiritual duty of stewardship. This influence is notably seen in the mobilization of Catholic social teaching following Pope Francis's encyclical 'Laudato si’', which critiques exploitative economic models and has spurred Catholic-affiliated colleges and NGOs to prioritize 'climate-just' coffee sourcing. In producing regions like Ethiopia and Latin America, religious institutions often function as the primary organizational hubs for fair trade cooperatives, using moral authority to advocate for sustainable farming practices and the protection of biodiversity as a divine imperative. These frameworks bridge the gap between scientific urgency and consumer behavior, turning climate resilience into a matter of individual and institutional conscience.

Climate change threatens the economic foundation of coffee-producing nations. Coffee is the primary export of many developing countries, and over 100 million people depend on coffee for their livelihoods. Reduced yields, shifting growing regions, and increased costs of pest and disease management threaten rural economies across the coffee belt.

• •Research estimates that by 2050, up to 50 to 60 percent of land currently used for coffee cultivation could become unsuitable due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
• •Coffea arabica requires temperatures between 18 and 22 degrees Celsius, making it highly sensitive to even small increases in average temperature.
• •A 2019 study found that 60 percent of wild coffee species are threatened with extinction due to climate change and habitat loss, threatening the genetic diversity needed for breeding climate-resilient varieties.
• •Coffea stenophylla, rediscovered in 2020, can grow at temperatures 6 degrees Celsius higher than Arabica and produces coffee judged to be of excellent quality, offering hope for climate adaptation.
• •Coffee leaf rust has expanded to higher elevations previously too cool for the fungus, linked directly to rising temperatures in coffee-growing regions.
• •Over 100 million people worldwide depend on coffee for their livelihoods, making climate change a threat not just to a beverage but to global food security and economic stability.

• •Chapter 4: Coffee Diseases
• •Chapter 13: The Future of Coffee

• •Davis, A.P. et al. (2019). 'High extinction risk for wild coffee species.' Science Advances.
• •Davis, A.P. et al. (2021). 'Coffea stenophylla.' Nature Plants.
• •Bunn, C. et al. (2015). 'A bitter cup: climate change profile of global Arabica coffee.' Climatic Change.
• •World Coffee Research. Climate Adaptation Strategy Reports. 2014-2023.
• •Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change and Agriculture. 2022.
• •Lyons, K.E. The Complete World of Coffee. Lyons Den Publishing. 2024.